...and the drumbeat rolls on.

I didn't have the chance to post the May GISTEMP anonaly map when it was published earlier in June, but here it is:

You can see that the warm anomaly in the arctic continues unabated, which is reflected in the latest Arctic Sea ice data from the NSIDC:

Continuing in this theme, NOAA's latest climate briefing was reported and among the unmistakable signs of warming is that Greenland has melted the most in a half-century of record keeping.

What other effects could climate change have? Well if you live in area that will get hotter and drier on average and you consume a lot juice to keep your excessively large buildings cool, you could experience power plants tripping off-line, like they are in Texas. Rick Perry will solve it with fasting and prayer.  Don't these idiots ever consider that the Big Man may not like humans blaming their own stupidity on Him?

Climate in Graphic Form

The first motive I had for starting this blog was to recorde my thoughts and observations on the great challenges we face in the upcoming decade. In particular I focused on climate, energy, politics and higher ed.  From time to time then its useful to just look at what' going on.  Since a picture speaks a thousand words, we can often get a quick snapshot of the current state of affairs. Today I offer the state of the global climate in images.

First up, the global temperature anomalies for February 2011 compared to a 1951-1980 baseline. Map generated from NASA GISTEMP data:

February 2011 temperature anomaly.

As seen all winter, the polar regions have been warmer compared to the baseline.  This is reflected in the Arctic sea ice coverage, based on the National Snow and Ice Data Center's data

Maximum ice coverage for winter 2011.

The maximum extent was reached on March 7th, close to the record low and below the baseline.  Interestingly it has stabilized at its maximum.

Arctic sea ice extent compared to previous years, as of April 7, 2011.

Another interesting, and troubling, data set is the heat content of the oceans. The data is from the National Ocean Data Center and you can read how they gather and process the data here.  As a former sonar technician, I know that temperature measurements have been gathered continually since the beginning of the Cold War in other to determine ASW sonar ranges, so their has been a motivation to gather a robust and substantial data set.

The average of the global heat content of the oceans. Increased heat content means warmer oceans and with a greater volume (separate from any volume added from melting glacial ice).

Finally, the latest CO2 measurements, painstakingly gathered from the observatory on Mauna Loa, Hawaii:

Atmospheric carbon dioxide trends at Mauna Los, as of March 2011.

Regardless of paranoid, narcissistic-rage fueled denials, the global climate is changing, we know why, and nothing is being done about it.

It was cold down south in January -so climate change is debunked, right?

NASA's GISTEMP site has just released the January surface temperature anomalies :

Temperature anomalies for Jan 2011 based on comparison to 1951-1980 trends (click to enlarge).

So despite what people in, say Texas, think, it hasn't been colder than normal everywhere. In fact both polar regions were warmer than the base periods. in particular the Arctic has had an extraordinarily warm winter due to a warmer than usual Arctic Ocean and record low sea ice levels.

This in turn has pushed the cold winter air that forms in the polar regions towards the mid-latitudes.  
Not surprising, as 2010 tied with 2005 as the warmest year on record. But maybe its all due to high solar activity, which is reflected by sunspot abundance. Let' see:

Monthly sunspot numbers since 1750, from Solar Physics, Marshall Space Flight Center (click for larger image).

Guess not...although its probably all a calphiate-marxist-L.L. Bean-Suguaro cacti plot against freedom.

BTW:  It may hit 65 F here in SE Pennsylvania this Friday.

Think its cold? Not so much in the Arctic.

Those who cannot accept a warming world probably take comfort in local cold and snow in the US and Europe, and use current local weather to dismiss reports that globally 2010 tied with 2005 for the hottest year on record . But what has this winter really been like from a global perspective.
Well here is November 2010's temperature anomaly (compared to 1951-1980 data):

Departure from 1951-1980 mean for November 2010, in degrees C Click for larger image..

 

 

And here's the same for December:

Departure from 1951-1980 mean for December 2010, in degrees C. Click for larger image.

Notice that the Arctic is significantly warmer than the reference period.  This is reflected by the near record low amount of Arctic sea ice. Here is the Arctic Sea ice coverage trend as of today from the National Snow and Ice Data Center:

Meanwhile, the observatory at Mauna Loa reports the mean atmospheric CO2 for December at 389.69 ppm. This continues the steady upward trend for the decade:

 

Now causality does not equal causation, but since we have established well back in the nineteenth that atmospheric carbon dioxide absorbs IR energy, a correlation between warming and CO2 is to be expected by the rational observer. This does not mean that the increase in CO2 for November and December are in lockstep, but the ever increasing carbon dioxide will be reflected over time by more and more positive temperature anomalies.

So right now, business as usual rules, in our actions and in the climatic response.

Wild Weather and Warming Climate

Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get.  Lately there has been some more "extreme: weather in North America, extreme because it is not what we expect based on long-term averages. There is a strong differential in temperatures in the continental US, with record warmth in the southeast and cold and snow in the central west and Pacific NW.

From the Weather Channel, Tuesday Nov. 2

Along with advancing cold air there were severe thunderstorms and rare November tornadoes in Illinois. The wild weather year continues.

That's the weather, but what to expect? The world continues to warm. NASA scientists using satellite data for 104 large inland lakes found that on average they have warmed two-and-a-half times the increase in atmospheric temps in the same time period. This past summer's Arctic sea ice melt was not as much as in 2007, but it was still well below the baseline. Amazingly, it is lagging in reforming and the ice extent is below 2007 for this time of the year:

Arctic sea ice extent as 11/21, from the National Snow and Ice Data Center,(click for larger image).

Not surprisingly, a record level of greenhouse gases was reached in 2009, and the threat of methane release from bogs and permafrost made the mainstream news with a report this week of methane bubbling up from Siberian lakes.

We label the weather patterns this year as "extreme" or "wild" or simply unusual because they are outside the expected climactic norms (this does not require them to be record breaking BTW). Of course if these weather patterns continue, they would soon constitute new norms and a new climate. This is what we could expect with continued global warming, extreme years punctuated with "normal" years (see this older post).

But what about the possibility of abrupt climate change? The next IPCC report could be dramatically worse, and reports of methane release are indeed alarming because methane is a very potent greenhouse gas and would accelerate warming. We just had a very snowy and/or cold winter in 2010, which could be due to warming in the arctic as sea ice loss in the arctic would shift atmospheric circulation.

Unfortunately, we can not answer the question with confidence and probably will not know it until we are several years or more into an abrupt shift. If it is the case, I expect to see denialism ramp up, not be defeated because denial is not just economic driven propaganda, but a human reaction to threatening news.

Arctic Sea Ice and Bargain Cutters

A couple of interesting items from over at the CG Blog.

First, they discuss this story at the Economist about economic and other effects of diminishing Arctic Sea ice. Considering that this past summer had one of the lowest sea ice covers on record, this is going to become a very important strategic as well as environmental issue. BTW it all relates to the Coast Guard because the CG is America's primary maritime presence in polar regions.

The other story relates to an opportunity to get some new cutters at a bargain. The problem I see is getting Congress to act quickly on this opportunity to save the taxpayers some money.

Icy hot

Since moving to Penn -Delmarva region, I've noticed the paucity of snow most winters. This past winter, of course, we were wracked by multiple storms, prompting many to proclaim that this short-term regional weather disproved long-term global warming. At the same time however, the Arctic sea region was warmer than the long-term average:

Come April, things started cooking 'round here, with a few brief cooler periods.We can see how things started warm more than average at temperate as well as polar latitudes during the March through May period:

As I noted a few weeks ago, it was the hottest June on record for Philadephia and today it was reported by the National Climatic Data Center that the 2010 Jan-Jun period was the warmest on record. The last few weeks it has been very warm and dry, but the past few days why have doused with many heavy showers - during a short walk yesterday I was soaked by a warm torrential downpour.
What does this all mean? Well climate is what ya expect, weather is what ya get. There has been an El Nino  event over the past year and a negative Arctic Oscillation, which tend to cause changes in precipitation and temperature patterns. But if this pattern becomes the expected, then we have a shift in climate.  We see the long-term T increase and could see gradual changes in precipitation, temperature variation and storm tracks. But again if the pattern present now becomes the new normal, then we could be witnessing some abrupt changes. Or if we no longer see consistent patterns year to year, then maybe we have climate instability. We can only wait and see what happens.
Back to the Arctic. In the midst of Snowmeggdon in February, a rapid sea ice melt was forecast and now seems to be a reality.  And this as well.

Things could get "interesting". If abrupt change is underway or begins, how long before the public at large get it?