BoSox: It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine!

(apologies to the late R.E.M.)
Before I went to Maine in the last week in August the Sox were on top of the world. While there I watched a few games on NESN, but nothing untoward was noticed. We ruched back to PA ahead of Irene, had to deal with that and then the start of my class, then Lee's remnants and the weeklong loss of internet. As a result I did not pay much attention,but when I did I noticed that things were starting to slip. Of course now the Sox have entered into a September death spiral that's become top news nationwide.

And it doesn't bother me.

As others have noticed,this team has no heart, no fire in the belly. But for me it, a classic Sox collapse may help clear out all the phony fans that climbed onboard after '04. Let me get one thing straight, if someone genuinely got interested in  baseball because of that year and became a Sox fan I have no problem with them.  But in Boston and New England way too many people, particularly college students and newcomers, decided the Sox were the latest in thing. They snatched up all the tickets, covered themselves with paraphernalia and loved to scream "Yankees suck"all the while having no idea why the rivalry even existed. I knew someone from my URI day who back in '95 used to bash baseball relentlessly. Suddenly in 2005 he was Mr. Sox Fan.

The test of a true fan is one who is there through thick and thin and who doesn;t excuse the players when they lie down on the job.  For me then, this collapse is a blessing in disguise.

Oil Prices and Production

Euan Mearnson the on OilDrum counters Daniel Yergin's latest denial of of the existence of peak fossil fuels:

In order for production to grow beyond the 82 mmbpd plateau the oil industry must add more than 4.1 mmbpd new capacity every year from an ever degrading pool of resources. To reach 110 mmbpd in 2030 would mean adding more than 4.1 mmbpd each year to 2030 reaching an additional 5.5 mmbpd new capacity in that year. Where is this new capacity going to come from? Yergin cites a list of new discoveries and new play concepts. But it has always been the case that new discoveries and plays have been developed and produced, and for the past 7 years these have been inadequate to provide new production in excess of declines.

In other words, the idea that difference between declines in conventional oil resources and consumption and increasing consumption have yet to materialize.  The article uses this fascinating graphic:

From The Oil Drum, click for a larger version.

The relationship between price and production is not simple supply and demand and increased demand and price does not immediately lead to increased production, the complexities of which are part of Mearn's piece. More importantly, if look at the overall production trend you see a steep rise until ~1980 followed by a slower rise and eventual plateau, the brief early-90s glut indiced dip does not obscure the overall trend.  This strongly suggests we are in a high plateau with no idea what the downslope will look like, in terms of either production or prices. But for the laisse-faire fundamentalists out there take heart - nobody is anything to control this journey.

Another Thing...wait, what?

Last night I saw a trailer for a new version of The Thing.

You cannot improve on the 1982 version, all you need to know about that one is Kurt-Fuckin' Russell and gore galore. Plus I first saw it on the messdeck TV of the cutter Diligence where audience "reaction" was a major part of the experience, I remember a cook named "Steamer" Derrigan saying, "If I saw that I would spend the rest of my life in a bar in Key West  doing shots going 'oh shit, oh shit."

Yeah, I know that the John Carpenter version was a remake of the (quite different) 50s version which was itself an adaptation of a short story, but there is a difference.  Unlike thirty years ago when an occasional remake of a B-grade or slightly better movie would be made, today all the major studios can come up with is vastly inferior remakes and movies inspired by video games, all aimed for a quick buck on opening weekend.  This new movie is supposed to be a prequel, but when have any of those ever been good? Besides the company behind it is the ones who did the crappy and forgettable Dawn of the Dead remake, obviously people without a spark of originality in their souls.

Round-up of observations during the down time.

I had my doubts about Elizabeth Warren, in part due to the reasons cited here, although that article is a bit inaccurate in its demographics.  But it seems like she is making the right moves wooing the working class natives, but ironically that may hurt here with Cambridge/Amherst liberals.  One thing that is often missed is that there is antipathy in Ye Olde Ivory Tower in Massachusetts towards local blue-collar types for reasons rooted deep in the Bay State's past. You see Harvard was a seat of Yankee power and culture, one that looked with horror at the invading Celtic hoards. Deep in the subconscious cultural psyche of the Yard and much of New England this bigotry remains, explaining the aversion towards populism. I mean for God's sake they didn't want the Kennedy presidential library in Cambridge because of this.

The Rs in Pennsylvania want to do away with the winner take-all allocation of electoral votes, instead going by congressional district.  Now I think this a better system, but of course they are doing it only because they believe it benefits the party and not the people (and Ds oppose it for the same reason), proving once again that the entrenched parties are the true obstacles to fair elections. The irony is that it may not benefit the GOP!

Ta-Nehisi Coates is great, Andrew Sullivan picked up on this where he lambastes liberals who bash Obama and others for not doing enough while not doing anything themselves:

People who talk of primarying Obama need to pick smaller targets--and thus elicit bigger results.

But being taken seriously involves actual work. It means a poverty tour that doesn't just bark (Obama the black mascot) but bites (voter registration in swing districts.) If you don't like the current iteration of America, you need to remember that you are America. The failure to build a more progressive America isn't merely a testimony to dastardly evil, it's a testimony to the failure of progressives.

Depending on whose metric you use, 2011 was had the lowest or second lowest amount of Arctic Sea ice. The previous record year? Way back in 2007...move on, nothing to see here.

Satellite measurement of Arctic Sea ice from NSIDC. Click for larger image.

And the worldwide temperature anomalies from GISTEMP for August:

Nearby the old school house in Philly it was the wettest August on record...before Hurricane Irene! So it wasn't even due to the tropical systems, which are random, uncommon events here. Put that in yer pipe...

Seems like more people who aren't survivalists of treehuggers are accepting Peak Oil, including those who plan to make a buck off of it in true Randian fashion.

Speaking of Rand-holes, the cheering for Ron Paul's let 'em die type comment at the Tea Party debate was the most authentic fascist moment in recent American politics.

Ahh, but this is all depressing, let's talk about the Sox...on the other hand let's not.

Pats won, that's good.

We're back baby

Verizon finally fixed the line to the Old Schoolhouse.  I have been catching up on other on-line and offline items, but will have new posts over the weekend and then hopefully back to a real schedule.

Verizon outage

Most of my blogging is from the olds school house itseld, and since last Wednesday we have had no phone or internet.  I have posts ready to go, but the shirt time I can get in-line from the UD campus is taken up with other matters.
During a T.S. related downpour last Wednesday I lost my connection. I later found the phone/DSL line, which crosses the road from our property, broken.  Apparently it was sagging and likely was snagged by a passing semi.

The big problem is that Verizon will not repair it until the upcoming Wednesday.  They blame the lack of respense on the need for repair crews in the worst hit flood areas in the Susqhehanna Valley.  Maybe they should apply some of their record profits to hiring more linemen.

I will try to post tomorrow evening.  Right now I am on an air-card that is supposed to be used for SB's work.

Midway and Aleutian Battles in Pictures

A slideshow of images from the WWII battles of Midway and the Aleutians in The Atlantic demonstrates how pictures can tell a story.

But images only tell part of the story.  The picture above is showing the destruction from Japanese bombs on Midway atoll. While the image provides a sense of what it was like that you won't get from reading an account of the battle, it lacks insight to the who, what and why of the events.  At the same time it shows something missed in many accounts. Note the birds in the foreground. These are nesting albatrosses or "gooney-birds" as the marines and Sailors call them.  Nothing, not even falling bombs perturbed them. Although the birds were a danger to aircraft operating from Midway, those stationed there admired their tenacity and refusal to budge.
In short, words and pictures alone can impart knowledge in different ways but taken together they work create a synergy, something more than just the sum of the two.

Pennsylvania Marcellus News Roundup, Aug. 22-30

Energy Department says it will slash Marcellus Shale gas estimate, after USGS report

The USGS report, released Tuesday, estimates that the eight-state Marcellus Shale region contains some 84 trillion cubic feet of undiscovered, recoverable natural gas. That amount is far higher than the geological service had estimated in a 2002 report, but far below a recent projection by the Energy Department.

 The conflicting reports prompted confusion and finger pointing amid growing questions about the extent of natural gas reserves available in the Marcellus region, which is in the midst of a drilling boom stretching from New York to West Virginia.

Natural Gas Reserves Debate Intensifies

A new US government estimate for the amount of natural gas contained in the Marcellus Shale is sharply lower than earlier projections.

But the new estimate has not undermined expectations that the Eastern US field will become one of America's most important energy sources in coming years.

Natural-gas data fuels ‘fracking’ battle

New federal estimates of the natural-gas resources beneath Eastern states are quickly touching off fresh battles over the controversial hydraulic fracturing drilling method.
The U.S. Geological Survey this week greatly increased its estimate of recoverable natural gas in the Marcellus Shale formation that underlies major areas of Pennsylvania, New York and other states.
But while USGS boosted its mean estimate from 2 trillion cubic feet to 84 TCF — almost enough to meet four years of current U.S. demand — the figure is far lower than the federal Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) most recent projection.

Study shows questions remain about economic benefits of Marcellus Shale

The results suggest that in 2009, Marcellus Shale development supported between 23,385 and 23,884 jobs in the state and generated around $3.1 billion in economic activity. This included about $1.2 billion in labor income and nearly $1.9 billion in added value.

"These results are about half the size of those estimated in previous Marcellus economic-impact studies," Kelsey said. "But this isn't surprising because we had more detailed information about leasing and royalty income. Our results confirm that where leasing and royalty dollars are going significantly influences the estimated overall impacts."

SEC Bears Down on Fracking

The federal government's investor-and-markets watchdog is stepping into the heated environmental debate surrounding hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking," according to government and industry officials, even as state and federal environmental officials have begun to bring greater pressure on the industry.

EPA meets with Pa. residents over drilling fears

More than a dozen people met with a contingent of federal officials in a private home in Susquehanna County, near the spot where a pipeline company was forced to halt work this month after repeated spills of nontoxic drilling mud into one of the state's most pristine streams.

Ross Considers Ordinances to Regulate Marcellus Shale Drilling

Ordinances to control Marcellus Shale drilling in Ross Township will soon be on the table for consideration, officials said.

UGI says region will be first to go all-Marcellus

UGI Utilities Inc. plans to make the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area its first region in Pennsylvania where customers will receive all their natural gas from the Marcellus Shale.

Western Pa. artists to air both sides of fracking

A tiny art gallery named for northwestern Pennsylvania's 19th century oil boom is asking local artists to weigh in on both sides of the fracking debate as Marcellus Shale gas drilling increases in the state.

One Month Later, Corbett Stays Vague On Marcellus Report’s Recommendations

...in late August, Corbett is staying vague on which of the commission’s 96 recommendations he’ll stick with, and which he’ll cast aside.

“We’re still reviewing it in detail,” he said at the Elizabethtown Fair, in rural Lancaster County. “We’re looking at the entire report, not just any one aspect. Breaking it down, as to what can we do without legislation? What may require regulation. What’s the time frame in that.”

The comments mirrored what Corbett told reporters on July 28: “I’m still reading it,” he said at the time.

Earthquake centered in Va. rolls across Pa.

The quake did not appear to have any impact on natural gas drilling in the Marcellus Shale region of Pennsylvania. The state Department of Environmental Protection, the Marcellus Shale Coalition trade group and representatives from drilling companies Chesapeake Energy Corp., Range Resources Corp. and Chief Oil & Gas LLC all said there were no reports of damage.

Nutter resists a role in shale showdown

The Convention Center next month will host a conference called Shale Gas Insight 2011, bringing some of the biggest names in the energy industry - and their political patrons - to Philadelphia.

As mayor of the host city, Michael Nutter no doubt would like to welcome the industry bigs and thank them for bringing their business here, something he occasionally does for conventioneers.
But as a Democrat who wants to make Philadelphia the greenest city in the nation, he could be seen as betraying core principles and political allies.
Instead, he seems determined to stay on the sideline.

State Rep. Boyle Supports Natural Gas Extraction Tax

Despite promises by Governor Tom Corbett to veto any legislation that taxes companies extracting natural gas from the Marcellus Shale formation, State Representative Brendan Boyle believes that the tax will happen in the near future.

Marcellus Shale sparks start-up’s plans to build ethane plant

Aither Chemicals LLC CEO Len Dolhert said his company’s technology for converting, or cracking, ethane extracted from the wet part of the Marcellus Shale play can be used for plants as small as $200 million. Capital costs for a traditional steam cracker would be expected to be at least $1 billion.

Citizens Marcellus Shale Commission Schedules Hearing in Williamsport

The Citizens Commission will hold five hearings across Pennsylvania to seek citizen perspectives on the Marcellus Shale. Sign up to participate at our first hearing on Wednesday, August 31, 2011, at South Fayette Middle School in McDonald, Pa. (near Pittsburgh). All hearings will be held from 6-9 pm and include time for public comment.

Referendum seeks borough drilling ban

Voters in State College will be asked in November to ban the extraction of natural gas within borough limits.

That question is part of an environmental bill of rights supported by the advocacy group Groundswell PA, which petitioned for a referendum on the issue on the general election ballot Nov. 8. The county’s Board of Elections approved Friday putting the referendum question on borough ballots.

Information on drilling fluids hard to come by in Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania is one of only four states with regulations in place requiring drillers to disclose on a well-by-well basis the additives and chemicals used in fracturing fluid injected deep underground into oil and natural gas wells. But the state is the only one not to post the data on the Internet.

New bills address digging near gas pipelines

Rep. Matthew Baker, R-68, Wellsboro, and Sen. Lisa Baker, R-20, Lehman Twp., are introducing bills in their respective chambers to bring gathering lines under a state law that provides a notification process to alert construction workers where underground lines are.

Stateline: PA Schools Fill Budget Cuts With Drilling Money

In late July, the Blackhawk School District, 40 miles northwest of Pittsburgh, joined a handful of other school districts in Pennsylvania looking to cash in on the state’s natural gas boom.
In a vote of seven-to-one, the school board agreed to lease 160 acres of the district’s land to Chesapeake Energy, the largest holder of mineral rights in the Marcellus Shale region, which lies underneath Pennsylvania and neighboring states.

US Energy Agency: PA Driving Northeast Gas Production

...Marcellus Shale drilling is driving the boat, when it comes to natural gas production in the northeast region. Pennsylvania, in particular, has seen a rapid boom, and now leads the way.

Hurricane Irene: Hey Media, It's not just about where you live.

Prior to Hurricane Irene coming up the coast, the media, particularly cable began to focus non-stop on the worst-case scenario for NYC,  That was the narrative for the week.  Even before it passed the narrative changed - the worst didn't happen in NYC, so the whole storm was overblown.

As that new narrative began to take root, word began to leak out on Monday that NJ, upstate New York and western new England were being devastated by record floods due to the rain from the storm.  Today that is the new story. Nate Silver does a good job dissembling the overhyped narrative.

The media also wants you to believe that this was unexpected, but the truth is forecasters warned about it and emergency planners were taking that scenario into account.  But it wasn't in the Big Apple where so much of the media is based and they expected themselves to be the center of the story, their egos wouldn't allow themselves to take into account the whole story. And any weather or disaster expert will tell you, tropical systems are much than where the eye is and what the highest wind gusts are.

Check out the video below of the Deerfield River in Shelburne Falls, MA:

 

 

Off for a week.

I'll be gone for a week, when I get back I hope to get the blog back on track.  With connectivity problems it was near impossible to get the Marcellus news updates written.

Vacation is a good time to think about what direction to take ones life, in my case, what do to do with this stunningly useless geology education. Useless so far in getting any sort of career in academia that is - it's all about pedigree, not skills and experience folks. While I'm at it, I'll try to brainstorm during my vacation on where to take this blog and what to change, I'm open to any helpful comments.

See ya in a week.