The "Political Divide", what it is and what it's not.

Been busy with the other blog and contractors, hence the lack of posts lately.

In all the blather over the Wisconsin recall, which I will give my take in another post, once again the pundits lazily went to the "Americans are all deeply divided" theme.  Yeah, all Americans are unflinching partisan liberal/progressive Democrats or conservative/Tea Party Republicans, just like we're all either Baby Boomers or Millenials (another theme of the pundits, must be some cognitive defect that doesn't allow them to consider more than two things). Oversimplified as that idea is, it is true that political power is controlled by only two hostile camps. But IMHO the origins of the differences between the two have little to do with the usual suspects put forth.

In my mind, politics is increasingly driven by the threats to the modern lifestyle generated by the lifestyle itself.  In the United States today, the dominating culture is the extended suburbia and exurbia. This culture is totally dependent on the car for mobility, consumes vast amounts of open space and energy, generates tremendous amounts of CO2 in the process and is economically supported by conspicuous consumption, construction, finance and marketing.  The last two have gone from becoming a means to an end to an end itself.  For many people, this is a seductive, easy and gloriously self-indulgent lifestyle.  And it has political power, enough to have warped our politics to suit it's needs.But as many have noted in the past, it's not sustainable and has hit the limits. Hence, the housing crash, corruption of the state so as to serve the financial industry, energy crunch and climate change.

Because this lifestyle is so important to so many people, the very concept of adaption and change needed to address these problems is viewed by it's defenders as an existential threat. Hence the emergence of the new reactionary "conservatives", who also engage in paranoia and religious fundamentalism as populist glue to bind themselves to the have-nots.  That's you modern Republicans.

What is the opposition? Well the Democratic party and liberalism/progressivism is still molded by late-60's New Left.  As I wrote about earlier, this mindset is generally anti-populist while considering itself the advocate of the people. In other words, the stereotype of an Ivory Tower liberal.  As such it is overly analytical, deliberately indecisive, condescending and tainted by new-jerk anti-Americanism.  Not a very good model for getting the votes of, you know, other Americans.  It doesn't matter if your ideas are right if you act like a stuck-up prick.  Now the Democrats are not monolithic like the Republicans and you have Clintons, Obamas and others who challenge this mold in one way or another, but that mindset I just described dominates the liberal/progressive talking heads and blogosphere. These folks remind more of some strident faculty I know who constantly criticize and rail against department leadership, yet who cowardly balk when offered the opportunity to step up to the plate themselves. All this results in a Democratic party that is ineffectual and incompetent with a stunning inability or unwillingness to make a genuine 21st Century populist appeal for reform.

The real problem though is not that all Americans fall into one of these two camps, many if not most of us don't.  The problem is they are the only game allowed in town.  Democrats and Republicans get preferential ballot access, taxpayer-subsidized primaries, control of districting and massive financial and media support.  Until this paradigm is broken, we can never get meaningful reform, our politics will remain paralyzed, and the looming challenges will not be met.

Oil Prices and Production

Euan Mearnson the on OilDrum counters Daniel Yergin's latest denial of of the existence of peak fossil fuels:

In order for production to grow beyond the 82 mmbpd plateau the oil industry must add more than 4.1 mmbpd new capacity every year from an ever degrading pool of resources. To reach 110 mmbpd in 2030 would mean adding more than 4.1 mmbpd each year to 2030 reaching an additional 5.5 mmbpd new capacity in that year. Where is this new capacity going to come from? Yergin cites a list of new discoveries and new play concepts. But it has always been the case that new discoveries and plays have been developed and produced, and for the past 7 years these have been inadequate to provide new production in excess of declines.

In other words, the idea that difference between declines in conventional oil resources and consumption and increasing consumption have yet to materialize.  The article uses this fascinating graphic:

From The Oil Drum, click for a larger version.

The relationship between price and production is not simple supply and demand and increased demand and price does not immediately lead to increased production, the complexities of which are part of Mearn's piece. More importantly, if look at the overall production trend you see a steep rise until ~1980 followed by a slower rise and eventual plateau, the brief early-90s glut indiced dip does not obscure the overall trend.  This strongly suggests we are in a high plateau with no idea what the downslope will look like, in terms of either production or prices. But for the laisse-faire fundamentalists out there take heart - nobody is anything to control this journey.

Round-up of observations during the down time.

I had my doubts about Elizabeth Warren, in part due to the reasons cited here, although that article is a bit inaccurate in its demographics.  But it seems like she is making the right moves wooing the working class natives, but ironically that may hurt here with Cambridge/Amherst liberals.  One thing that is often missed is that there is antipathy in Ye Olde Ivory Tower in Massachusetts towards local blue-collar types for reasons rooted deep in the Bay State's past. You see Harvard was a seat of Yankee power and culture, one that looked with horror at the invading Celtic hoards. Deep in the subconscious cultural psyche of the Yard and much of New England this bigotry remains, explaining the aversion towards populism. I mean for God's sake they didn't want the Kennedy presidential library in Cambridge because of this.

The Rs in Pennsylvania want to do away with the winner take-all allocation of electoral votes, instead going by congressional district.  Now I think this a better system, but of course they are doing it only because they believe it benefits the party and not the people (and Ds oppose it for the same reason), proving once again that the entrenched parties are the true obstacles to fair elections. The irony is that it may not benefit the GOP!

Ta-Nehisi Coates is great, Andrew Sullivan picked up on this where he lambastes liberals who bash Obama and others for not doing enough while not doing anything themselves:

People who talk of primarying Obama need to pick smaller targets--and thus elicit bigger results.

But being taken seriously involves actual work. It means a poverty tour that doesn't just bark (Obama the black mascot) but bites (voter registration in swing districts.) If you don't like the current iteration of America, you need to remember that you are America. The failure to build a more progressive America isn't merely a testimony to dastardly evil, it's a testimony to the failure of progressives.

Depending on whose metric you use, 2011 was had the lowest or second lowest amount of Arctic Sea ice. The previous record year? Way back in 2007...move on, nothing to see here.

Satellite measurement of Arctic Sea ice from NSIDC. Click for larger image.

And the worldwide temperature anomalies from GISTEMP for August:

Nearby the old school house in Philly it was the wettest August on record...before Hurricane Irene! So it wasn't even due to the tropical systems, which are random, uncommon events here. Put that in yer pipe...

Seems like more people who aren't survivalists of treehuggers are accepting Peak Oil, including those who plan to make a buck off of it in true Randian fashion.

Speaking of Rand-holes, the cheering for Ron Paul's let 'em die type comment at the Tea Party debate was the most authentic fascist moment in recent American politics.

Ahh, but this is all depressing, let's talk about the Sox...on the other hand let's not.

Pats won, that's good.

A Friday Round-Up for a Thin Week

Little time to blog this week, so I'll just do a round-up of things I wanted to talk about but didn't have time to. I have a lot to say on the News Corp phone hacking scandal, but that deserves its own post.  On thing that has just happened is that the former head of News International and current CEO of Dow Jones has resigned.

Speaking of News Corp, a blog in that tree-hugging, anti-business rag The Wall Street Journal tells us that oil production can't keep with demand.  Some interesting points from James Herron's Oil Production: Running to Stand Still:

In June, Saudi Arabia responded to rising oil demand, against the protests of fellow OPEC members, by pumping an extra 700,000 barrels a day of oil...So what effect did this major effort have on the crucial balance between oil supply and demand? Very little.

Oil supply from countries outside OPEC for 2011 was revised down by 0.2 million barrels a day because of “prolonged production outages” in a number of important oil producing regions, the IEA said.

More oil is increasingly being consumed at source. The Saudis pumped an extra 0.7 million barrels a day in June, but half of this was consumed domestically.

The Crowell & Moring law firm said birth defects in W. Va are the fault of inbreeding, not mountain-top mining.  Nice strategy, blame a stereotype, not the effects of your client's operations: massive exposure of coal seams (which can include sulfur and heavy metals) to oxygen and water, creating acid mine drainage, as well as radical alteration of surface and groundwater flow.

In their festering Randian-Calvinists minds, the Teabaggers believe themselves to be disciples of fictitious Founding Fathers who were all evangelical protestants who never would think of taxation and fees as a way to pay for the operation of the Federal government.  One of many things they ignore is that the first government under the Constitution solved a massive debt problem by RAISING REVENUE.  When Western Pennsylvania farmers rebelled against an excise tax on corn whiskey, President Washington even raised troops to enforce collection.  The birth of the Coast Guard in the form of the revenue marine came about as a result of revenue collection as well. Secretary of the Treasury Hamilton obtained approval from Congress to build the first ten cutters for the purpose of collecting tariffs and stopping smuggling.

Conor Freidersdorf in The Atlantic watched the Palin documentary in empty Orange County theater.The turnout  shows how overrated she is by the pundits.

It's pretty pleasant here in SE PA, but our fifth heat wave is expected next week.  The drought and heat continue in the south and Plains, leading the Governor of Oklahoma to call for prayer.  Blame it on God eh, not our abuse of the planet eh? When you look at the comments in the linked article notice all the Texas-Okie denialsts claiming it's always hot there.  That begs the question, why pray for it to end then?  But don't worry Southern farmers, that evil federal government will bail you out from the effects of extreme weather.  Too bad most of you vote for people who deny climate change and believe the federal budget should be balanced immediately by only cutting spending.

The Business of Peak Oil

Even as some refuse to accept that production of a finite resource can ever "peak", military and intelligence services of several nations have warned about it. But while the general business line has been to deny or downplay it,  a confirmation of the existence of peak oil is found recent business reporting, from how adapting to it will help CRM (Customer relationship management) strategies to how to make money off the decline in production.

Unstable Oil Production and Prices: The New Normal

"How Peak Oil Explains the Past Five Years" is one of the best recent articles I've come across that examines the status of world oil production. It is worth a careful read, Instead of  a sharp peak and precipitous decline that the doom-mongers pitch, Phil Hart believes we have been in undulating plateau that shows a complex relation between production and prices:

My view now is that resources in the ground may be sufficient to allow for global capacity to continue on this ‘undulating plateau’ a little longer, or for decline rates to at least be moderate in the short-term. But the geopolitics of the major oil producers, and Iraq in particular, could mean that actual production capacity falls (just a little) short of what resources in the ground might otherwise sustain. But it is only a hypothetical world where resource limits do not interact with geopolitics and such above-ground factors only become a concern when you're near the below-the-ground limits.

 I suggest that rising and falling production with complex feedback with prices, politics and the economy is going to be the "New Normal" for the upcoming decade. It actually provides breathing room to get stuff done, if we can get the knuckledragging and pandering strains of political thought out of the way.
I suggest that rising and falling production with complex feedback with prices, politics and the economy is going to be the "New Normal" for the upcoming decade. It actually provides breathing room to get stuff done, if we can get the knuckledraggers and pandering strains of political thought out of the way. Of course it doesn't help when you nonsense like this being pushed by a delusional right-wing economist who is often used by Kudlow to justify some of the nonsense he spouts . As geolosist Kenneth Deffeyes once said, "The economists all think that if you show up at the cashier's cage with enough currency, God will put more oil in ground."

UPDATE: OPEC surprisingly fails to boost oil production.  Could be a couple things going on here. Political instabilty in the Middle East is effecting some governments abilities to control production (seems unlikely for the big producers) or maybe some like Saudi Arabia are at a resource peak and cannot easily raise production.

The Challenges We Face Redux

I've had time to mull over where to go here. I may reboot the whole thing in the future on Wordpress. One thing I've done is update my profile, and I'll explain my "recovering academic" description in a long-winded rant sometime this week (we're all entitled to a few of those). I'm also going to try a daily Marcellus news update, since a once a week or more post takes a lot of time to put together.  First and foremost though I want to restate and define the main theme I'm pushing.

Since I've started this little blog, I've refined the challenges I think we in America and the world will be forced to address in this decade.  There are, as always, many, but I think there are three big interconnected ones that are now prominent and will overshadow the others.

First of all, let's consider energy. People in 1811 lived much like those in 1511 or 1211. There were some major improvements in the technologies they used over those times, but the energy sources were largely the same: wood, water, wind, animal and human muscle power. All these were mechanical except for the burning of wood. In 1811 steam was first being harnessed. Compared to those people we live like gods today. I'm on a laptop in a room artificially lit with electricity, with cool and frozen food downstairs and a full larder of foodstuffs, some maybe transported long distances by wondrous machines unthinkable in 1811 or 1511. I even have one of my own. Not to mention all the amazing materials (paint, plastic containers, medicines etc.) that would seem miraculous to our ancestors. This amazing advance has literally been fueled by hydrocarbons long accumulated and buried in the crust, especially petroleum.  Crude oil is really an amazing substance. Being a liquid at surface temperature and pressure, it is easily transported in containers or pipelines. It is a stew of hydrocarbons that can be economically separated into substances as diverse as asphalt, diesel fuel, gasoline, white gas, petroleum jelly, baby oil, propane and paraffin wax.  We also use it as chemical feedstock to make plastics, rubber, medicines, etc. It is even our main source of sulfur and helium. Coal is still in heavy demand for generating electricity and natural gas is being used for transportation, heating, chemical feedstock and fertilizer feedstock. It is not an exaggeration to say these fossil fuels drive our entire modern civilization.

But these fossil fuels exist in finite amounts. There will be point for each where global production can no longer rise or remain steady and will begin to fall. With petroleum this has been called Peak Oil, a useful term ruined by various survivalist types who have latched onto it as the latest source for their apocalyptic fantasies. But it appears that production may have peaked in 2005-2008, a development that will impact the global economy, food production and geo-politics. It will also increase demand on the other fossil fuels. This energy crunch is my Challenge Number One.

Extraction and refining of fossil fuels creates many environmental problems, as does their use.  One byproduct of our massive use in the modern technological world is the constant increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide, a gas that absorbs infrared light or heat energy.  As an effective greenhouse gas, its gradual and continuous increase will increase retention of heat in the atmosphere, land and sea. Since weather systems are just heat transfer mechanisms, increasing the heat will disrupt the long-term weather patterns and averages we call climate.  The recent extremes in weather around the globe may just be the beginning of instabilities in this system, such weather disruptions will impact the global economy, food production and geo-politics. Climate change and in particular near-term climate instability is my Challenge Number Two.


You'll notice I said that both the energy crunch and private and public expenses incurred by weather disruptions will impact the global economy. Add this on top of a poorly regulated market based not on production of goods but on financial transactions on transactions with socialized losses and privatized profits and we wind up with increasing income inequality and economic instability. This laisse-faire system promoted and accepted by those with pseudo-religious understanding of market economics hinders any attempt to address challenges one and two and will lead to political conflicts. Resolving this slash and burn economy is Challenge Number Three.


You can see that all these challenges are interwoven and it follows that they all must be addressed together or none will.  So in addition to my random observations, political rants and so on, watching the developments in these challenges will be the main focus of this blog.

People Need to Grow Up II: High Gas Prices

Not only do we have 12-year old level sniping over failed pol's families, but the whine over gas prices is rising.  We were warned about this scenario back in the 70s and got the first hit in 2008.  Its likely we've hit the production peak and are seeing waves of supply constriction, aggravated by the Middle East unrest and rising demand from China and India.
The head of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement, Michael Bromwich, put it best: "The problem is, not enough people are listening.You can't drill your way to lower oil prices. It's a world market. We have a very limited impact on that."
People don't want to hear that though, they've already forgotten what happened a year ago.

Quick takes on Energy

With a schedule change in my life I hope to be back to consitently providing Marcellus news upadates net Monday. Meanwhile, there are a couple of quick updates to make on the energy front.

1) Oil supplies- my opinion on Wikileaks has mainly been, "tell us something we don;t already know." A leaked cable from the U.S. embassy in Riyadh shows that back in '07 the staff there was concerned about the Saudi's ability to meet demand and that they may hit peak oil in 2012. Nothing new for those who've been following this, but it is significant in that U.S. officials privately agreed with the PO scenario.  It also seems to have gained some traction as the story is on my Yahoo front page.

The other story is that the EPA is releasing information on how it will study fracking. The EPA's announcement states. "The scope of the proposed research includes the full lifespan of water in hydraulic fracturing, from acquisition of the water, through the mixing of chemicals and actual fracturing, to the post-fracturing stage, including the management of flowback and produced or used water and its ultimate treatment and disposal."

Will an Oil Crunch Derail any Recovery? Plus the Weekly Marcellus Update

Enjoying the economic recovery? Yeah, not being a Wall St. broker I haven't seen much of one either. Now a number of people have blamed the 2008 crash on the spike of oil prices; I think it may have been a component but there were structural flaws present to begin with in the economy. However, as Lisa Margonelli at The Atlantic reports, once-again rising oil prices may thwart any recovery presently underway. This situation appears similar to the stagflation episode in the 70's, which was due to the various energy crises of the time and responses to them. There are  of-course some major differences between our economy then (much less domestic manufacturing and less sprawl) and economic effects (high inflation, interest rates and unemployment). Nevertheless, there seems to be little room for rational doubt regarding the negative impact an oil price crunch will have on the global economy.

Now the weekly round-up of news on the Marcellus going-ons in Pennsylvania:

Publication focuses on water withdrawal for gas drilling Clearfield Progress Originally published Sept. 2009, "Water Withdrawals for Development of Marcellus Shale Gas in Pennsylvania" reflects the latest Marcellus-related regulatory changes enacted by the Susquehanna River Basin Commission, the Delaware River Basin Commission and the state Department of Environmental Protection.

Gas Pipeline Firm's Plans in Pa. Hit Snag ABC News State public utility regulators have been advised to reject an effort by a natural gas pipeline firm that could subject its unregulated pipelines to safety standards, but also help it secure the power of eminent domain on private property.

Study shows wind and gas drilling trends Daily American Online Pennsylvania could become the site of an additional 60,000 Marcellus natural gas wells and 2,900 wind turbines by 2030 — developments that may cause significant environmental impacts...

WVIA to broadcast Marcellus Shale program live from Towanda's Keystone Theatre Towanda Daily Review The Thursday, Dec. 9 show of WVIA's weekly public affairs television program, "State of Pennsylvania," will be broadcast live from the Keystone Theatre in Towanda and will focus on issues related to Marcellus Shale gas drilling.

Antero Resources to buy Marcellus assets Oil & Gas Journal Antero Resources LLC, a private Denver independent, is buying Bluestone Energy Partners, a private company with Marcellus shale acreage in West Virginia and Pennsylvania.

Marcellus information online Daily American Online For the first time Pennsylvania’s oil and gas industry production and compliance information is available online as part of the commonwealth’s ongoing effort to make the industry’s operations more transparent, according to the state.

Warren sewage plant gets OK to treat gas-drilling wastewater Youngstown Vindicator -The Ohio Environmental Protection Agency has granted a final permit modification to Warren to allow its waste-treatment facilities to treat wastewater generated by drilling for gas in the Marcellus Shale region....The water will come from wastewater generated from hydraulic fracturing of Marcellus Shale deposits located primarily in Pennsylvania and West Virginia, ...

IEA admits Peak Oil, say we already passed it.

The International Energy Agency notes in its 2010 World Energy Outlook that crude oil production peaked in 2006, as shown in slide 8 from their press release:

click for large image

Interestingly, Kenneth Deffeyes and Matthew Simmons both stated that PO arrived in December 2005. In another interesting find, Nafeez Ahmed relates that Dr. Colin J. Campbell, formerly of BP, has written that oil production peaked between 2005 and 2008. One notes when looking at the above graph that the IEA makes a big assumption, i.e. overall crude oil production will remain constant due to fields yet to be developed or yet to be found! In fact, if you look at the same graph in the report itself, you'll find that if you add in just "fields to be developed" conventional crude still declines, the only thing that keeps it constant is an increasing amount of oil fields "yet to be found"!

Considering that oil field discoveries themselves peaked  45 years ago, that second assumption is pretty amazing and fanciful. You'll also note that they still have oil production overall rising, due to an assumed increase in unconventional oil production and constant natural gas liquid supply. In short, the IEA admits Peak Oil exists and has already hit, but then say don't worry, things will work out - somehow. The Oil Drum does a good job dissecting the report and calling BS on their assumptions.  Make sure to check out the comments on unconventional natural gas, i.e. shale gas.


Coming on the heels of a U.S, DoD report warning about PO and another more publicized report from the German military it seems that Peak Oil may be starting to become mainstream, may being the operative word. Considering the human capacity for denial, we will probably not see widespread acknowledgment until we reach a price crunch. Even then, the left wing and right wing will blame it on Big Oil price gouging and over-regulation respectively.

Marcellus News for Pennsylvania

Been a busy few weeks and the news was flooded with pre-election BS. I hope now to get back to a weekly Monday round-up.

Resource Developments:
-People are now beginning the question the meme that shale gas will be a cornucopia of endless energy, jobs and money. Rigzone discusses the sharp drop-off in production that occurs in fracked wells, but holds out for a technological solution.
Business Insider reprints an article from the Peak Oil site The Oil Drum helpfully titled: Here's Why The Marcellus Shale Discovery Will Be A Disappointment. It makes many of the same points as the first piece, but is much more detailed and pessimistic. Definitely worth a close read. Both stories show that doubts over the gas shale hype exist within the industry.
-But the hype goes on, with Penn State forming all sorts of allegedly lucrative partnerships with industry. And the Penn State Cooperative Extension plans to diversify into gas shale ops..

Environmental Developments:

-The state DEP released a preliminary air-quality survey for a small samples of wells. DEP Secretary John Hanger stated, "This short-term study only provides a snapshot of the air contaminants we found at surveyed sites, but the data shows no emission levels that would constitute a concern to the health of residents living near these operations."  Read the full story on PR Newswire. 

-The DEP also announced its new Oil and Gas Electronic Reporting site.  

-The Pennsylvania Environmental Council has named Paul M. King president and chief executive officer.

 

Political Developments (Party like its 1886):

-Over at WSJ, there was crowing that a "Red" Pennsylvania will kill off renewable energy and that Governor-elect Corbett will lift that silly Rendell moratorium on drilling in State Forests. That's a reasonable report compared to this nonsense, but at least they admit its all about gorging on finite resources for profit now and damn the future consequences.

-Last Wednesday, 500 anti-fracking protestors targeted a gas industry meeting in Pittsburgh. 

-Inside the meeting, Karl Rove acknowledged that the new governor, state legislature and House of Reps will make life easier for drillers by removing many of them there pesky regulations. Folks, remember the Canned Ham when the energy and climate crises hit with full force.

-Peregrine Keystone Gas Pipeline is seeking public utility status that will allow them to take private land by eminent domain to run their pipelines.

Business developments:

-Canadian based Talisman will be reducing its Marcellus production due to low gas prices and focus on the Eagle Ford Shale in Texas, which produces more profitable condensates such as propane and butane.

-However, low gas prices won't stop National Fuel from drilling more wells in the Marcellus Play

-National Fuel reports it 2010 earnings, up $8.7 million for the fiscal year.

-Stone Energy also reported its 3rd quarter earnings, For January through September 30, 2010, Stone reported net income of $76.0 million, compared to a net loss of $147.6 million for the comparable 2009 period.

I'm sorry to tell you this, but our economy has cancer.

A modern, technologically advanced economy is like a human body. It has many different organs that each perform a task necessary for the whole organism to survive. None can survive without a whole and healthy organism, and this requires a delicate management of the system. The problem for the greedy is that in a properly managed  healthy economy (one that benefits all) the opportunities to become very wealthy can be somewhat limited, as innovation and the success of new products are always uncertain. It isalso difficult to rapidly gain excessive wealth, particularly through non-productive activities of the FIRE (Finance, Insurance, Real Estate) sectors when the economy is working well for all sectors.

In a living body, some diseases occur when some organs fail and others when organs operate improperly. This happens in our body economic as well. We also know that sometimes certain cells go into a malignant mode, reproduce rapidly, perform no useful whole body function, consume bodily resources, overrun their organs and spread; in other words cancer.

In 2010 America we no longer produce much of what we use. Our infrastructure is crumbling. Our health services are still too expensive and out of reach, emergency response is being cut, acquisition and spread of knowledge is a joke, the flow of money to much of the economy is diminished. The FIRE sector no longer serves a productive capitalist market economy, but exists for its own sake. Since the time of Reagan, we have led an lazy, unhealthy lifestyle (sending our productive jobs overseas), concentrated fat in a few places (income disparity), and consumed a monotonous diet of an economic carcinogen (cheap oil).

A malignancy began in FIRE, aided by a hyperactive marketing organ. We embarked on a runaway-feedback loop as rapid suburban and exurban development generated mortgage and other finance activities and associated insurance activity. To continue the beast required further real estate development and the cycle began to feed on itself.  People involved in FIRE moved to the new exploding exurbs and those who in the past would have worked producing goods wound up serving the exurbs as contractors, retail clerks, and landscapers. Thes people needed to live in exurbia, but instead of wages FIRE produced a sweet diet of credit. Exurbia required huge amounts of transportation to grow and survive, which required increasing amounts and dependence on oil. Exurbs took over local farms, requiring us to move food across state, across country, across the seas, consuming more oil. The FIRE metastasized in the government and media and academia. Those organs began to mimic FIRE, producing less while increasing useless administration. The body failed to notice because it was being drenched in the marketing hormone.

We were diagnosed in 2008. Many have balked at the mild (too weak in turns out) treatments prescribed, favoring the tax cut, tax cut and tax cut woo pushed by Tea Party quacks. The marketing hormone and oil addiction are too strong for many. But the cancer is still there, and it will continue to feed.

Distant Thunder

I've hit higher education repeatedly. Our challenges cry out for research and education, but American collegs and universities are increasingly mediocre, overpriced, and smothered by cancerous administration. The situation is unsustainable and we may see a bursting tuition bubble.

A leaked report in Der Spiegel has made the rounds on the internets. Why? It is a German military study of the potentially drastic effects of Peak Oil.

Many stories this week also about a current global food crisis and the connection to climate change. This includes a bad wheat crop in Russia and substantial crop failures in Africa. At the moment the UN dismisses the idea of a global crisis.

On a local level, this has been the hottest summer in 116 years of record keeping in Delaware. By itself that means nothing, but four of the five hottest summers will have occurred in the last 8 years.

Intro continued: The Problems We Face

Throughout history, societies have been continually beset by multiple problems and have responded by continual change. In other words, society operates most of the time in dynamic equilibrium. People believe that these equilibrium periods of relative stability are actually static and unchanging, an illusion that results from long-term problems and gradual change operating below most peoples’ radar. This equilibrium is on occasion destroyed by converging and/or rapidly worsening problems and large unforeseen events (the so-called Black Swans) and a period of considerable change results. Because people perceive times of dynamic equilibrium as static and set in stone, they tend to act very negatively when the equilibrium is upset.


There have been any number of people on-line and elsewhere who have foreseen enormous problems for society in the not too distant future.  My perspective is that these problems did not just suddenly appear and are not problems for the distant or even near future.  I think that right now we are in the midst of these challenges and resulting unavoidable changes. These problems only appear to be converging in this new decade because many are interrelated and all are acting synergistically.

OK so what, IMHO, are these problems or challenges? Some are global, some I look at from an American perspective. These are how I define them and I could expand on them; others may have different ideas.  But these are the broad themes I’ll tend to keep to:

1)      Energy. The end of cheap oil and the consequences.

      Climate change. The developing consequences. Is abrupt change occurring?

3)      Economics. How an economy that has become excessive consumption for the sake of consumption is destroying itself.

4)      Education, in particular higher education. Marketing, the unchecked growth of non-educational administration and the demise of colleges and universities as places for education and research.

5)      Destructive reactions to challenges. By this I mean denialism, anti- rationalism, reactionary politics and doomerism.

A few last things:

-I don’t believe in doom and I’m not into the end-of-the world fetish. If you believe all hope is lost and find fault with every proposed solution, don’t waste your time here. Just curl up into the fetal position somewhere and quietly wait to the end. Private Hudson was an amusing character, not a role model.

-Conspiracy theories are for those too lazy to learn history or acknowledge the complexity of the world. Some are funny as hell and I like to pick on the wackos who promote them. You’re not going to win me over to any, so don’t waste your time

-Don’t look for mystical cycles for random natural events and call it science.

-Just because an expert is occasionally wrong doesn’t mean an uninformed crackpot is right.