Sitrep* on wealth and fairness

*sitrep, military-speak for situation report

The Congressional Budget Office reports the obvious, the richest 1% have been getting richer while everyone else has been stagnant:

Between 1979 and 2007, the top 1 percent of Americans with the highest incomes have seen their incomes grow by an average of 275 percent, according to the CBO study (PDF).

In comparison, the 60 percent of Americans in the middle of the income scale saw their incomes increase by just 40 percent during the same time period, according to the study, which was based on a combination of IRS and Census data.

 Meanwhile, people like Herman Cain and Rick Perry float tax plans that will punish the poor and help that 1%.  They and others like Ron Paul also want to strip the government to regulate business, presumably including safety of the food supply.  At the same time the present system shows it is not strict enough:

The death toll linked to Listeria-contaminated cantaloupes in the United States has climbed to 28, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Tuesday.

Whole or pre-cut Rocky Ford-brand cantaloupes from Colorado-based Jensen Farms have been traced as the cause of what has become the deadliest U.S. food-borne Listeria outbreak in a quarter century.

The way higher ed operates has gotten a pass (IMHO it is a systems of cronyism that awards the haves at the expense of the have-nots), except in terms of the cost:

In-state tuition at public colleges shot up 8.3 percent this year to an average of $8,244, according to an analysis by the College Board. Tuition at private four-year colleges jumped a more modest 4.5 percent, to an average of $28,500.

This is above the rate of inflation, but then so the salaries of the top administrators are way above that of faculty and staff - and the number of these administrators and their salaries keep growing.

Even the Vatican has chimed in on the economic stresses in the world (not surprising if you know Catholic Social teaching).  As Andrew Sullivan says, this has not gone down well with those who can't  reconcile modern American Republicanism with their supposed strong faith:

You knew the Church's effective endorsement of Occupy Wall Street would prompt a sudden outbreak of heterodoxy on the theocon right, didn't you? I mean any Catholic challenge to Randian orthodoxy in the GOP must be smacked down quickly, right? And, sure enough, the theocon blogosphere rises as one in dissent.

But some are saying us Gen Xers like yours truly are happy and balanced. Well there's my personal world and the greater world so I guess it depends on which you are looking at.

Delaware being occupied

An Occupy Delaware group has sprung up and this one has some real blue-collar origins:

Some who arrived at the United Auto Workers hall in Newark on Wednesday were unemployed, others were underemployed and those who had jobs like Von Spalding of Dover talked about the difficulties of supporting a family with current wages.
Spalding said he felt he needed to do something, so he attended a meeting in Newark this week to join the nascent Occupy Delaware group, a gathering modeled after the larger Occupy Wall Street movement spreading across the nation.

The reason why there is a UAW hall in Newark, DE is that there used to be a Chrysler plant in town. That closed recently and has been bought "as is" by the University of Delaware, who is marketing some vague economy defying plans for the property.
Funny thing is Newark is also a college town and one would expect an Occupy group to start up on campus (compare to Boston), but UD students have been accused of being among the most politically apathetic in the country.  I don't know about that, I saw some blazer and tie wearing College Republican fratties cheering for Christine O'Donnell outside the debate in campus last year. Seriously though, any involvement by UD students has been below the radar compared to other locations, I'll see if I can find it.

The whole occupy thing...

I've been trying to get a post with my thoughts on Occupy Wall Street out, but with my obligations and the constantly shifting story I keep finding myself behind the curve. But I should since it ties in with the whole supposed point of this blog. So I'll get one with my impressions to date out tonight.

Someone who I often find myself simultaneously agreeing and disagreeing with, Thomas Friedman, disclosed that he himself is unsure what it all means, but points out two possibilities:

When you see spontaneous social protests erupting from Tunisia to Tel Aviv to Wall Street, it’s clear that something is happening globally that needs defining. There are two unified theories out there that intrigue me. One says this is the start of “The Great Disruption.” The other says that this is all part of “The Big Shift.” You decide.

Disruption, said Gilding. “Our system of economic growth, of ineffective democracy, of overloading planet earth — our system — is eating itself alive. Occupy Wall Street is like the kid in the fairy story saying what everyone knows but is afraid to say: the emperor has no clothes. The system is broken....Not so fast, says John Hagel III, who is the co-chairman of the Center for the Edge at Deloitte, along with John Seely Brown. In their recent book, “The Power of Pull,” they suggest that we’re in the early stages of a “Big Shift,” precipitated by the merging of globalization and the Information Technology Revolution. In the early stages, we experience this Big Shift as mounting pressure, deteriorating performance and growing stress because we continue to operate with institutions and practices that are increasingly dysfunctional — so the eruption of protest movements is no surprise.

Andrew Sullivan thought this picture looked like a South Park parody, but it may actually express many peoples frustration and uncertainty, in a crude sort of way:

Marcellus News for Pennsylvania Update: Sep 21-28

EQT Receives Federal Clearance to Begin Long-Planned Marcellus Shale Pipeline Construction Project

As part of its ongoing Marcellus capacity expansion, Equitrans will begin construction of its project "Sunrise" which is comprised of the installation of approximately 41.5 miles of 24-inch-diameter pipeline and 2.7 miles of 16-inch-diameter pipeline that runs from Wetzel County, West Virginia to Greene County, Pennsylvania, as well as a new compressor station near Jefferson in Greene County. The Sunrise pipeline system will generally parallel existing Equitrans facilities, thereby reducing its environmental footprint, and is expected to be operational before summer 2012.

DEP reorganizes to oversee Marcellus drilling

A bureau of environmental cleanup and brownfields will be created to emphasize revitalization of industrial sites, he said. A new bureau of conservation and reclamation, which will include staff assigned to restoring streams affected by acid mine drainage, will consolidate water management functions.

Penn Virginia-Aqua to Supply Water

The operating units of Penn Virginia Resource Partners L.P. (PVR - Analyst Report) and Aqua America Inc. (WTR - Snapshot Report), yesterday, joined hands to build and operate a private pipeline system to supply fresh water to natural gas producers drilling in the Marcellus Shale in north-central Pennsylvania.  The joint venture formed between the two companies is named Aqua — PVR Water Services LLC.

Federal Court Rules on Drilling In PA National Forest

A fed­eral appeals court rul­ing may open the door to more Mar­cel­lus Shale drilling in Pennsylvania’s Allegheny National For­est. It also sheds light on the con­fus­ing issue of sur­face and min­eral rights. Because of the way state law is writ­ten, sur­face and min­eral rights are sold sep­a­rately. That means a per­son can sell land to the state or fed­eral gov­ern­ment, and still main­tain con­trol over whether or not drilling can take place there.

Marcellus Gas Producers Face 'Chaos' From Land Law Ruling

A Pennsylvania appeals court ruling has raised questions about who can claim ownership of natural gas embedded in the Marcellus shale formation, potentially putting in doubt the legitimacy of thousands of drilling leases.

The state's Superior Court said Pennsylvania law governing ownership of oil and gas rights isn't clear and a lower-court judge should solicit expert opinions in a case pitting current landowners against the heirs to an 1881 deed.

 DiGirolamo co-sponsoring Marcellus Shale tax bill

State Rep. Gene DiGirolamo, R-18, is trying to push through a law that would enact a 4.9 percent tax on drillers for natural gas through Marcellus Shale formations in Pennsylvania.
DiGirolamo is teaming up with state Rep. Tom Murt, R-152, on the effort and the two lawmakers have e-mailed all other state representatives seeking co-sponsors for the bill. The two say their proposed law is a “compromise among the various pieces of legislation seeking to institute a severance tax or an impact fee on deep natural gas within the state’s Marcellus Shale formation.”

State law still fuzzy on vital mineral rights

Mineral extraction has been a principal industry in Pennsylvania since the mid-1800s. One would think, given vast practical experience in the extraction of oil and coal, that legal issues regarding drilling leases and mineral rights would be settled.

Not so, according to the state Superior Court, which has directed a court in Susquehanna County to conduct a hearing that could upset an unknown, but certainly substantial number of drilling leases.

Spin overtaking facts in Marcellus Shale debate

Some insist Marcellus Shale natural gas is a huge economic boom for America, while others are certain it's an environmental catastrophe.
Gas drilling from the Marcellus pollutes groundwater, or it never pollutes groundwater. It's cleaner than coal or oil, except that it's dirty. It provides a boost to hard-hit rural economies; but then again, maybe it doesn't.
The one point of agreement? Scientists say advocates on both sides increasingly spin every shred of research to fit their own views, and ignore the bigger picture.

Drillers Face Methane Concern

Many water supplies in northern Pennsylvania have long contained detectable levels of methane, because of poorly constructed water wells and the unusual geologic features here. But the contamination in Ms. Vargson's existing well is among the first cases that state regulators have attributed to natural-gas drilling, prompting a normally competitive group of drilling companies to work together to fix the problem.

Maker of 'Gasland' honored at Manayunk festival

Documentary filmmaker Josh Fox has reaped praise and criticism for his film Gasland.

Now, he's won what he calls a very timely award.

The Manayunk Development Corporation honored Fox this weekend with its My Eco-Champion Award during the second Manayunk EcoArts Festival. 

Scarnati Wants A Marcellus Bill By October; Ready To Play Ball To Get One

Sen­ate Pres­i­dent Pro Tem Joe Scar­nati is grow­ing impa­tient. He doesn’t want to wait any longer to pass a com­pre­hen­sive bill deal­ing with nat­ural gas drilling. On the state House’s first day back in Har­ris­burg since June, the Jef­fer­son County Repub­li­can set a dead­line. “I want it moved in Octo­ber,” he told the Penn­syl­va­nia Press Club, refer­ring to a bill cre­at­ing a drilling impact fee, and impos­ing safety and zon­ing reg­u­la­tions. “I am tired of being here, hold­ing the bag year after year, try­ing to get this done.”

 Range Resources, Cabot Dismiss Impact Of Pennsylvania Shale Case

In a move aimed at calming anxious investors, Range Resources Corp. (RRC) and Cabot Oil & Gas Corp. (COG) said Monday that ongoing litigation over shale gas rights in Pennsylvania is unlikely to have a significant impact on their operations.

Both oil-and-gas companies issued statements playing down the effect of a legal dispute being reviewed by a Pennsylvania appeals court. However, the case, Butler vs. Powers, could have broad consequences for the ownership of thousands of leases in the state's portion of the Marcellus Shale, a rock formation underlying several states in the Northeast that has become one of the most prolific sources of natural gas in the U.S.

W. Pa.'s Consol Energy in $193M Marcellus deal

Consol Energy Inc. says it has sold a $193 million stake in its Marcellus Shale holdings in southwestern Pennsylvania and West Virginia.
Consol, based in Canonsburg, announced the deal with Antero Resources Appalachian Corp. of Denver on Monday. Antero will receive royalty interests of approximately 7 percent in 115,647 acres located in nine counties.

Curriculum revised to meet demand in shale industry

Nine career and technical education centers in Pennsylvania have revised their curriculum to accommodate the demand, and three others plan to, according to a survey by the Pennsylvania School Boards Association. Twenty of the state's 62 career and technical education centers, or CTCs, responded to the survey.

"We're trying to start new adult programs that will get people out working," said Christine Scalise, adult vocation training coordinator at the Forbes Road CTC. "It looks like there will be jobs far into the future."

Marcellus shale science target of $2.5 million NSF grant

A science- and energy-based program focusing on Pennsylvania counties with natural gas exploration and production, and developed by a multidisciplinary team of Penn State researchers, is part of a $2.5-million grant from the National Science Foundation.
"Marcellus Matters: Engaging Adults in Science and Energy" aims to enhance the public's understanding of science, engineering and energy through community-based activities that promote "doing" science, develop local expertise on energy issues and draw on residents' knowledge of their environment.

EPA Holds Hearing on Natural Gas Drilling in Pennsylvania

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency held a public hearing in Pittsburgh, Penn. on Tuesday night in a move to advocate its proposed rules to reduce air pollution from oil and gas drilling operations in order to comply with the Clean Air Act.The EPA proposal, which would apply new pollution control standards to approximately 25,000 gas wells that are hydraulically fractured in the U.S. each year, would require drillers to implement a new technology that would allow them to capture and sell gas that would normally go to waste.

 Upper Devonian may hold as much gas as Marcellus Shale: Range executive

Upper Devonian, found at shallower depths than the Marcellus Shale that sits around 6,500 feet deep in southwest Pennsylvania, may hold "probably an equal amount of gas per section...as there is in the Marcellus," Ray Walker, a senior vice president of Range, said late Tuesday at the Independent Petroleum Association of America's Oil and Gas Investment Seminar in San Francisco. His comments were webcast. 

 News Nearby: Judge to Rule on Marcellus Shale Home Rule Charter Question Next Week

Washington County Common Pleas Court Judge Paul Pozonsky said Wednesday he plans to rule by the end of next week on an injunction request filed by Peters Township to not place the Home Rule Charter amendment, proposed by the Marcellus Shale Awareness and Action organization, on the Nov. 8 election ballots.

Unstable Oil Production and Prices: The New Normal

"How Peak Oil Explains the Past Five Years" is one of the best recent articles I've come across that examines the status of world oil production. It is worth a careful read, Instead of  a sharp peak and precipitous decline that the doom-mongers pitch, Phil Hart believes we have been in undulating plateau that shows a complex relation between production and prices:

My view now is that resources in the ground may be sufficient to allow for global capacity to continue on this ‘undulating plateau’ a little longer, or for decline rates to at least be moderate in the short-term. But the geopolitics of the major oil producers, and Iraq in particular, could mean that actual production capacity falls (just a little) short of what resources in the ground might otherwise sustain. But it is only a hypothetical world where resource limits do not interact with geopolitics and such above-ground factors only become a concern when you're near the below-the-ground limits.

 I suggest that rising and falling production with complex feedback with prices, politics and the economy is going to be the "New Normal" for the upcoming decade. It actually provides breathing room to get stuff done, if we can get the knuckledragging and pandering strains of political thought out of the way.
I suggest that rising and falling production with complex feedback with prices, politics and the economy is going to be the "New Normal" for the upcoming decade. It actually provides breathing room to get stuff done, if we can get the knuckledraggers and pandering strains of political thought out of the way. Of course it doesn't help when you nonsense like this being pushed by a delusional right-wing economist who is often used by Kudlow to justify some of the nonsense he spouts . As geolosist Kenneth Deffeyes once said, "The economists all think that if you show up at the cashier's cage with enough currency, God will put more oil in ground."

UPDATE: OPEC surprisingly fails to boost oil production.  Could be a couple things going on here. Political instabilty in the Middle East is effecting some governments abilities to control production (seems unlikely for the big producers) or maybe some like Saudi Arabia are at a resource peak and cannot easily raise production.

Marcellus News for Pennsylvania

Been a busy few weeks and the news was flooded with pre-election BS. I hope now to get back to a weekly Monday round-up.

Resource Developments:
-People are now beginning the question the meme that shale gas will be a cornucopia of endless energy, jobs and money. Rigzone discusses the sharp drop-off in production that occurs in fracked wells, but holds out for a technological solution.
Business Insider reprints an article from the Peak Oil site The Oil Drum helpfully titled: Here's Why The Marcellus Shale Discovery Will Be A Disappointment. It makes many of the same points as the first piece, but is much more detailed and pessimistic. Definitely worth a close read. Both stories show that doubts over the gas shale hype exist within the industry.
-But the hype goes on, with Penn State forming all sorts of allegedly lucrative partnerships with industry. And the Penn State Cooperative Extension plans to diversify into gas shale ops..

Environmental Developments:

-The state DEP released a preliminary air-quality survey for a small samples of wells. DEP Secretary John Hanger stated, "This short-term study only provides a snapshot of the air contaminants we found at surveyed sites, but the data shows no emission levels that would constitute a concern to the health of residents living near these operations."  Read the full story on PR Newswire. 

-The DEP also announced its new Oil and Gas Electronic Reporting site.  

-The Pennsylvania Environmental Council has named Paul M. King president and chief executive officer.

 

Political Developments (Party like its 1886):

-Over at WSJ, there was crowing that a "Red" Pennsylvania will kill off renewable energy and that Governor-elect Corbett will lift that silly Rendell moratorium on drilling in State Forests. That's a reasonable report compared to this nonsense, but at least they admit its all about gorging on finite resources for profit now and damn the future consequences.

-Last Wednesday, 500 anti-fracking protestors targeted a gas industry meeting in Pittsburgh. 

-Inside the meeting, Karl Rove acknowledged that the new governor, state legislature and House of Reps will make life easier for drillers by removing many of them there pesky regulations. Folks, remember the Canned Ham when the energy and climate crises hit with full force.

-Peregrine Keystone Gas Pipeline is seeking public utility status that will allow them to take private land by eminent domain to run their pipelines.

Business developments:

-Canadian based Talisman will be reducing its Marcellus production due to low gas prices and focus on the Eagle Ford Shale in Texas, which produces more profitable condensates such as propane and butane.

-However, low gas prices won't stop National Fuel from drilling more wells in the Marcellus Play

-National Fuel reports it 2010 earnings, up $8.7 million for the fiscal year.

-Stone Energy also reported its 3rd quarter earnings, For January through September 30, 2010, Stone reported net income of $76.0 million, compared to a net loss of $147.6 million for the comparable 2009 period.

Generation of Locusts

I like BigThink, where Eruptions! moved to. A lot of thoughtful pieces there. Two I saw in the last few days touched on my biggest source of angst, one me and my peers have felt since the '80s. That is, the baby boomers have pulled the ladder up behind themselves, leaving behind a mess they refuse to acknowledge.

Today, Mark Seddon tell us how the Boomers are leaving behind a broken economic/social  system, both in the US and the UK.

I have been meaning to write a long post on how the Dems lost the working class, basically pinning it on the hijacking of the party by New Left inspired ideology in the early 70's. The New Left apparently wasn't that interested in traditional labor issues, concentrating more on labor issues. Anyway, in one part of an interview Gen. Wesley Clark explains how that ideology has allowed the Republicans to paint the Dems as weak and unAmerican ever since. Add in the fact that the anti-war movement demonized servicemen, most of whom were working class and many of who were drafted, the alienation of the working class towards the Dems is not surprising.

I can go on about this, but right now I things to do.  I'll leave you with one more example, the Conan-Leno fiasco!

Just some thoughts before I head out the door....

When I look out the electronic window onto the world, I not only see the challenges we face, but two loud crowds: the doomers and the denialists.
Both spend an excessive amount of time on-line and both drown out any other opinions. The denialists look at problems and say, "that's not true, we'll be fine, we'll only be fine as continuing doing what we're doin', nobody can tell me what to do...." The doomers look at problems, see the challengers and tough decisions and say, "its hopeless, nothing will work, its too little, no one cares, everyone is stupid (but me)..."  For the latter its a good thing there are real threats, otherwise they would have to invent some.

The doomers and denialist appear to be antagonists, but you know what? They're actually walking hand -in-hand, because they both are obstacles to accomplishing anything.

A few rules for life:
1) There are always problems to be addressed.
2) denying them doesn't make them go away
2) sometimes there are more of them and sometimes they are worse
3) sometimes there are no good answers
4) doing nothing is almost always the worst option
5) everything will have unintended consequences

Don't think '94, think '38

Paul Krugman makes the point that 1938 is a very good analogy for our current economic and political state. The line that struck me, "Even under F.D.R., there was never the political will to do what was needed to end the Great Depression; its eventual resolution came essentially by accident." The accident of course being the ginormous spending of WWII.

I look at our economic path through time as a ship heading down a channel. Since Reagan we first pulled to one side of the channel and then decided to go even further and take a "shortcut" out the right side. We suddenly found ourselves among rocks and shoals. Obama began to steer us back, but the shortcutters began to scream*. This made the ship's officers begin to vacillate and their supporters among the passengers wrung their hands and fell silent. A wrecker's light has sprung up, luring us back towards the rocks. The shortcutters are now hoping for a takeover so we can head towards the light.

What happens next?

*not surprising, since navigation is a science

Gas Shale News for the Keystone state

Since I was away last week, I did not post the weekly rouns-up on Friday. Let's get to it:

Not quite PA, but the Albany Times-Union reports on proposals to sequester greenhouse gases in the Marcellus Shale.

Another story on the vulnerability of PA state parks to Marcellus development and more on the pooling issue. I predict that in Pennsylvania these two issues will be as big as contamination from fracking.

Speaking of which, Senator Bob Casey called for full disclosure of all chemicals used in hydrofracking.

State pols claim that unlike resource rushes in the past, this time Pennsylvania is going to get the gas rush right.

A consortium of community colleges plan to start programs to provide training for working in the gas industry, thanks to a $4.9 million grant form the U.S. Labor Dept.

The Gerson Lehrman Group includes the Marcellus in a summary of various unconventional "plays", neatly ignoring the environmental and property rights issues. Guess those are not part of cost analysis for professional investors.

SM Energy may be selling off its Marcellus assets. I wouldn't read too much into this yet, other than routine business wheeling and dealing, buying and selling.

The Norwegians are coming....

One apparent beneficiary of the gas boom has been shortline and regional railroads.

The state DEP is now enforcing stricter waste-water rules, although the gas industry feels it is being unfairly targeted. Meanwhile, over half the drillers have missed the DEP deadline for reporting their production.

Thomas Gentzel, the executive director of the Pennsylvania School Boards Association, is pushing the idea that Marcellus play will provide a windfall for PA schools. The labor unions want in as well.

Intro continued: The Problems We Face

Throughout history, societies have been continually beset by multiple problems and have responded by continual change. In other words, society operates most of the time in dynamic equilibrium. People believe that these equilibrium periods of relative stability are actually static and unchanging, an illusion that results from long-term problems and gradual change operating below most peoples’ radar. This equilibrium is on occasion destroyed by converging and/or rapidly worsening problems and large unforeseen events (the so-called Black Swans) and a period of considerable change results. Because people perceive times of dynamic equilibrium as static and set in stone, they tend to act very negatively when the equilibrium is upset.


There have been any number of people on-line and elsewhere who have foreseen enormous problems for society in the not too distant future.  My perspective is that these problems did not just suddenly appear and are not problems for the distant or even near future.  I think that right now we are in the midst of these challenges and resulting unavoidable changes. These problems only appear to be converging in this new decade because many are interrelated and all are acting synergistically.

OK so what, IMHO, are these problems or challenges? Some are global, some I look at from an American perspective. These are how I define them and I could expand on them; others may have different ideas.  But these are the broad themes I’ll tend to keep to:

1)      Energy. The end of cheap oil and the consequences.

      Climate change. The developing consequences. Is abrupt change occurring?

3)      Economics. How an economy that has become excessive consumption for the sake of consumption is destroying itself.

4)      Education, in particular higher education. Marketing, the unchecked growth of non-educational administration and the demise of colleges and universities as places for education and research.

5)      Destructive reactions to challenges. By this I mean denialism, anti- rationalism, reactionary politics and doomerism.

A few last things:

-I don’t believe in doom and I’m not into the end-of-the world fetish. If you believe all hope is lost and find fault with every proposed solution, don’t waste your time here. Just curl up into the fetal position somewhere and quietly wait to the end. Private Hudson was an amusing character, not a role model.

-Conspiracy theories are for those too lazy to learn history or acknowledge the complexity of the world. Some are funny as hell and I like to pick on the wackos who promote them. You’re not going to win me over to any, so don’t waste your time

-Don’t look for mystical cycles for random natural events and call it science.

-Just because an expert is occasionally wrong doesn’t mean an uninformed crackpot is right.